Teleconnections (i.e.,
expected effects of El Niño) :
What are the scientific views about the existence and
the strength of El Niño teleconnections to the Ethiopian region?
Interest in
El Niño in Ethiopia began following the devastating 1983-84 drought. In
the 1980s, the research capacity at the NMSA on medium and long-range weather
forecasting was improving (Kassahun 1999). Forecasters at NMSA were trying to
come up with physical explanations for the recurrence of drought in Ethiopia
(Kassahun 2000). ENSO was found to be one of the main factors that lead to
drought in Ethiopia. Research at the NMSA began to focus on the links between
the distribution of rainfall, Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) (including the
Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans), and Ethiopian weather (Kassahun 1999).
The NMSA has
concluded that increases or decreases in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on
the Pacific Ocean impact the amount and distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia
(Kassahun 1999). Normal Kiremt rainfall is disrupted because El Niño
weakens the atmospheric systems that strengthen rainfall and its distribution
during the Kiremt season (Kassahun 1999).
The first
application of El Niño to seasonal forecasting in Ethiopia was in 1987.
In its 1987 seasonal forecast, NMSA incorporated ENSO effects on Ethiopia for
the belg and Kiremt seasons (Haile 1987a, 54). Haile stated that
the “occurrences of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and SST
anomalies have a strong impact on the weather and climate variability” of
Ethiopia. He said that the impacts of El Niño events on Ethiopian rainfall are
real (Haile 1988). There is also an empirical pattern of association between El
Niño and droughts in Ethiopia (Wolde-Georgis 1997, 5).
According to
Ininda and el. al. (1987, 134), “… the years of strong El Niño, which are also
years of negative SO anomaly, are generally characterized by below normal
rainfall in Ethiopia.” Nicholls (1993, 1) believes that El Niño caused the
great Ethiopian drought of 1888. About one third of the population and 90
percent of the cattle died because of the 1888 drought (Webb and Braun 1994,
20). bibliography.
There is a
negative teleconnection between the floods of the Nile and Atbara rivers that
originate in Ethiopia and ENSO Events (Attia and Abulhoda 1992). Etahir
(1996) also concluded that ENSO affects the flow of the Nile River that gets 85
percent of its water from highland Ethiopia; i.e. low flows of the Nile indicate
drought in Ethiopia. Etahir recommended that knowledge of such information
could help in the predictability of the annual flow of the Nile River.
The 1997 Kiremt
droughts and the 1996 Kiremt floods also occurred during El Niño and La
Niña years, respectively. According to Haile (1987a, 58), “the ENSO events have
significant impacts on the rain-producing components over Ethiopia and its
vicinity. The normalized rainfall analyses in northern Ethiopia clearly
indicate that the drought years 1957-58, 1965, 1972-73, and 1984 strongly
correspond to the recurrence of the ENSO events.”
According
to Haile (1987b, 118), “The occurrence of the ENSO events as represented by the
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) … strongly corresponds to the drought
incidence (in mid-1960s, early 1970s and early 1980s).” The teleconnection is a
result of a complicated feedback mechanism with speculated sequences that cause
drought incidences in Ethiopia. These sequences are:
Positive SST anomaliesÞ ENSO eventsÞ generation of
high frequency of typhoonsÞ displacement and weakening of Tibetan highÞ
the weakening of TEJ, vertical shear and easterly disturbanceÞ
drought” (Haile 1987b, 118).
Drought occurs
in Ethiopia during ENSO years because the thermal gradient is weakened as a
result of the SST anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea (Haile 1987b, 118). This
weakening, in turn, reduces the warm-moist cross equatorial flow. Thus, the
ENSO events (and the SST anomalies) … seem to strongly correspond to the
reoccurrence of drought in Ethiopia” (Haile 1987b, 118). In addition to the
influence of tropical weather systems, “the interaction between the above
tropical systems and the extra tropical weather system makes the major active
weather component of the country” (Kassahun 1987, 53). Rainfall patterns in
Ethiopia are disturbed when El Niño weakens the high-pressure air mass on the
South Indian and South Pacific Oceans that cause rainfall in Ethiopia (Kassahun
1999).
El Niño affects
the Kiremt seasonal weather in Ethiopia by weakening the rain-producing
systems in the region and by distorting the amount and distribution of rainfall
in Ethiopia (Kassahun 1999). La Niña has the opposite effect on the Kiremt
rainfall, as was seen in 1970, 1971, 1988 and 1996, when there was above-normal
Kiremt rainfall in Ethiopia (Kassahun 1999). Regions that are usually
affected by El Niño are northern, northeastern and eastern parts of
Ethiopia.
There is no
single model of correlation between ENSO and the whole country; some areas are
more correlated with ENSO than others. However, “All Ethiopian Kiremt
rainfall is significantly correlated with May SOI” (Southern Oscillation Index)
(Yebeshaw 1996, 5). bibliography. Comparisons of seasonal Kiremt rainfall
totals with the corresponding seasonal mean of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
appears to be deficient during ENSO events (Babu 1999b, 68). Droughts in
Ethiopia outside El Niño years are the result of other physical factors that
control rainfall.
Babu states the
following on the relationship between ENSO and Kiremt rainfall:
Since SOI is
closely related to ENSO or La Nina episodes, the Kiremt rainfall
anomalies (1970-1988) were correlated with the June, July, August and September
(JJAS) seasonal mean of SOI. It is found that the correlation is very high
(0.8) and indicating a possible link between SOI and Kiremt rainfall.
For the southern and northeastern regions the correlation was weak (0.3). It is
worth to mention that southern regions do not experience rains during Kiremt
seasons. Thus, low negative SOI links to below normal while high positive SOI
corresponds to normal to above normal rainfall (Babu 1999b, 68).
|
MONTHS |
RAINFALL REGIMES |
|||||
|
|
Country |
A |
a1 |
B |
C |
|
|
|
|
|
|
b1 |
b2 |
|
|
JJAS |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
|
AM |
0.7 |
0.6 |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
MA |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
MAM |
0.5 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
FMAM |
0.4 |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
|
FMA |
0.2 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
Source: Amare Babu 1999b, 69.
As Table 1
shows, a fairly high value of 0.7, the SOI has a predictive value because of
the correlation between Kiremt rains and the pre-seasonal months of SOI
(Babu 1999b, 68). The correlation (-0.2) between Kiremt rainfall and SOI
decreases as one moves to the southeastern and northeastern parts of Ethiopia.
Thus, “pre-seasonal April and May (AM), March and April (MA) and March, April
and May (MAM) months mean could be used to issue seasonal weather outlooks for
the Kiremt seasons as one of the predictors” (ibid.). ENSO
disturbs the Kiremt rain producing system in the tropics and
sub-tropics, while “during La Niña episodes, the major features are well
defined, strong and well organized, and a good amount of rainfall is
experienced” (ibid.).
Impact of
ENSO on the belg rains
The belg rainfall
is generally considered variable in quantity and distribution. However,
southwestern Ethiopia and some areas in the central highlands receive between
500-700 mm of rainfall during this season. The rest of the country gets a low
amount of rainfall. The relation between Pacific SST and belg rainfall
show a negative association with SOI (Babu 1990). The belg rainfall
between 1970 and 1988 and its comparison with February to May SOI show that
normal to above normal belg rainfall exists during negative SOI (ibid.).
During ENSO years (e.g. 1982, 1987, 1992), the belg rains were above
normal, while during La Niña years, the belg producing regions of
Ethiopia received below normal rainfall, as shown in 1991, 1974, 1999 and 2000
(Kassahun 1999, 2000.). The relationship is created because “high negative or
positive index” makes the weather system deviate from the norm by pushing or
bringing that precipitation.
The NMSA has
classified ENSO types by their timing, and the timing of the significant
increase in SST. Zang and Wang (1990) state that, “In the first group,
the anomaly increases considerably in the period from January to June, in the
second during July to December.” The NMSA has used this classification to
correlate the relationship between El Niño events and 223 rainfall stations for
the 1969-1987 period. Based on this analysis, NMSA has reached the following
conclusion on the impact of El Niño on Ethiopia (Bekele 1997, 106, Babu 1999b,
70):
§
ENSO events
are associated with anomalous synoptic patterns during Kiremt and
belg seasons.
§
La
Niña (negative SSTA) is strongly associated with deficient belg rainfall
§
El Niño
(positive SSTA) is associated with normal or above normal belg rainfall
§
If the
increase in the SST occurs between January-June (i.e. group A), it is always
associated with severe Ethiopian drought in Kiremt: e.g. the 1972 and
1987 El Niños
§
If the
increase in SST occurs between July-December (group B), it seems the El Niño
has limited effect on the Kiremt rainfall: e.g. the 1982-83 El Niño.
§
El Niño is
not the only cause of drought in Ethiopia.
The NMSA scientists state, “So far basic
statistical research indicates that ENSO events influence the rainfall
variability over Ethiopia. It seems that there is a possibility to predict
seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia if the SST and ENSO events could be forecast in
good time. In order to carry out these objectives, however, it is essential to
acquire improved ENSO forecasts well in advance” (Babu 1999b, 70).
In
response to the FEWS report in early October 1997, the Early Warning department
of the DPPC issued a special report on El Niño to show the relevance of El Niño
events to Ethiopian rainfall. The report was extracted from the NOAA and other
Internet sites. It affirmed that there is a historical association between El
Niño and drought in Ethiopia.
El Niño episodes seem to be associated with drought
occurrences in Ethiopia. The National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) has
recognized the association for several years now and El Niño information is
included in making seasonal forecasts. As a result, the quality of the
forecasts has greatly improved. (DPPC, October 1997)
There is a
teleconnection between El Niño events and climate-related hazards in Ethiopia
as manifested by the droughts of 1888, 1957, 1965, 1973, 1983-84, 1987,
1993-94. There is a clear association when periods of El Niño from Quinn and
Neal (1987) were compared with droughts in Ethiopia, as Table 2 illustrates
(Wolde-Georgis 1997).
Table 2. Chronology of El Niño and Climate-Related Disasters
in Ethiopia
|
El Niños |
Disaster Years |
Types |
Affected |
Killed |
Regions |
|
1953 |
1953 |
Drought |
NA |
NA |
Tigray, Wollo |
|
1957-58 |
1957-58 |
Drought |
NA |
NA |
Tigray, Wollo |
|
|
1965 |
Drought |
150,000 |
2000 |
|
|
|
1968 |
Flood |
10,000 |
1 |
|
|
|
1969 |
Drought |
170,000 |
Unknown |
|
|
1972-73 |
1973-74 |
Drought |
300,000 |
100,000 |
Tigray, Wollo |
|
|
1976 |
Flood |
50,000 |
Unknown |
|
|
|
1978-79 |
Drought |
250,000 |
157 |
|
|
1982-83 |
1983-85 |
Drought |
7,750,000 |
300,000 |
Ethiopia |
|
1986-87 |
1987-88 |
Drought |
330,000 |
367 |
Ethiopia |
|
|
1989-90 |
Drought |
2,300,000 |
Unknown |
N. Eth., Harer |
|
|
1990 |
Flood |
350,000 |
|
N. Eth., Harer |
|
1991-92 |
1991-92 |
Drought |
6,160,000 |
|
|
|
1993 |
1993-94 |
Drought |
6,700,000 |
|
Tigray, Wollo |
|
1996 |
1996 |
Flood |
|
|
East Ethiopia |
|
1997 |
1997-98 |
Drought Flood |
|
|
N & E Ethiopia
East Ethiopia |
Complete models
on the impact of El Niño on Ethiopian climate variability are not yet available.
The existences of many microclimates due to the mountainous terrain, the lack
of meteorological data and trained staff in Ethiopia are most likely some of
the reasons for this lag in scientific studies. The NMSA has to develop its
studies of the effect of the El Niño event on Ethiopia both by different
regions and ecological zones as well as on different scenarios of the emergence
of the El Niño event and its monthly effect on various parts of Ethiopia.
Climate Related
Anomalies Associated with the 1982-83 El Niño.
There were many
climate-related anomalies associated with the 1982-83 El Niño in Ethiopia. In
addition to the misguided policy of the military government, it was the El Niño
of 1982-83 that led to the devastating Ethiopian drought/famine of 1984-85.
Some argue that the Ethiopian drought of 1983-84 was not as intense as the
strength of the El Niño (the record SST at that time) (Ward and Yeshannew
1990). The 1984-85 Kiremt rains in Ethiopia failed because, “In 1984, a
warm event of unusual amplitude affected the eastern tropical Atlantic during
the relaxation phrase of the 1982-83 Pacific El Niño” (Bekele 1997, 109).
Following the 1984 drought, thousands of people and animals died in Ethiopia
due to hunger. Many families were displaced due to voluntary and forced
migration, especially from Tigray, which was the center of military
confrontation against the military government. One notable example was the mass
migration of about 200,000 people from northern Ethiopia to the Sudan who were
in search of food, at least until the weather improved (Hailu, et. al. 1994).
Climate-Related
Social and Physical Impacts in 1997-98:
The development
of El Niño in the Western Pacific and its impact on Ethiopia were clear in
mid-1997. The NMSA gave its first forecast on May 29, 1997, and assessed the
impact in August. In August 1997, the NMSA announced that El Niño had disrupted
rainfall distribution in various parts of Ethiopia during the Kiremt. It
stated that rainfall was below normal in many parts of the country, including
southern Tigray, Northern Shewa and the SPNNS by 60, 30 and 40-50 percent
respectively. The cause was El Niño (Ethiopian Herald 8/30/1997).
The El Niño led to climate anomalies on the Kiremt, Bega,
and belg seasons of 1997-98 in Ethiopia. The 1997-98 Ethiopian rainfall
was characterized as deficient and erratic (Babu 1999b, 69). This led to a
decline in food production, the outbreak of disease, such as cholera and
cerebral malaria, which killed hundreds of people, and displacement of people
due to flooding (Babu 1999b, 70).
It was also
reported that the temperature was abnormally high in July and August 1997. It
was reported that 18 people were bitten by snakes--8 of the individuals
fatally. This happened when the snakes were taking refuge in residential areas
due to the scorching sun (Xinua 9/20/1997).
The 1997
Erratic Kiremt (June-September)
The Kiremt
rains usually begin in the middle of June. In 1997, the rains arrived on time;
but as the season progressed, precipitation was "generally low and
distribution were uneven,” especially in the low altitude areas of the country
(DPPC 1997b, 3). The 1997 Kiremt was characterized by variability
of rainfall in amount and distribution. This was particularly severe in the
eastern part of the country (NMSA 1997b). In the first ten days of July,
there was a normal commencement of rainfall in the northern and northeastern
parts of the country; however, rainfall was reduced in July and August in
quantity and distribution (NMSA 1997b, 2). In many other areas, the rains were
late by 10 to 15 days, which deviated from the normal and expected pattern. [1] In line with the forecasts of NMSA, the
1997 Kiremt rainfall in Ethiopia was “somehow erratic with some areas of
the country receiving poor rains while others – mainly the western highlands –
have received relatively good rainfall during the growing season” (UNDP –
9/1997). There were interruptions of rainfall in July and August, undermining
the growth and development of crops during these crucial months. There was also
“the early withdrawal of the Meher rains, when most crops were at
critical stages in their development” (NMSA 1997c, DPPC 1997b, 3).
According to
the NMSA almost all parts of Ethiopia had dry spells in the Kiremt months
of July and August 1997 (NMSA November 1997). Of Ethiopia’s 33 zones, 18
reported that the Kiremt rains were unusually late, which caused further
delay in planting and reduced the number of seed options. Land preparation was
affected because “farmers sacrificed the quality of plowing for timeliness of
sowing” (FAO/WFP 12/19/1997). In addition, the 15 zones that had a good start of
the Kiremt rainfall in 1997 were not saved from the anomaly. As the
season progressed, rainfall was becoming increasingly erratic “with variable
dry spells recorded in August and/or September in most zones” (FAO/WFP
12/19/1997). Although the lowland parts of Ethiopia were more affected by the
variability of rainfall than others, even the dega and weina dega
agro-climatic zones were not spared from the impact of the low rainfall record. [2] This led to the premature desiccation of
crops (FAO/WFP 12/19/1997). The FAO team that visited Ethiopia in 1997-98
reported that total precipitation from the first decade of January 1997 to the
last decade day of September 1997 was 15-50 percent below 1996 rainfall [3] (FAO/WFP 12/19/1997).
The late
arrival of the rains and their interruption during the 1997 Kiremt led
to the late planting or replanting of crops, particularly affecting the
planting of long maturing crops (UNDP 9/1997). At the end of September 1997, it
was obvious that the normal development of crops would need an unseasonable
extension of the rains by 2-4 weeks to save a fall in production (UNDP
9/1997). The wish of many farmers for the unseasonable extension of the
rains was realized when the rains were extended until late November, which
became too much for the crops to bear normal production.
The heavy
rainfall slowed the rate of desiccation of the crops. Furthermore, there was
germination of wheat and sorghum and an increase in the rate of spoilage of the
crops that were harvested. The possibility of fungal attack on standing and
stored cereals also increased (FAO/WFP 12/19/1997). The area planted in the
1997 Kiremt season was estimated to have decreased by 9 percent from
that of 1996. Shortage of inputs, such as oxen power and seeds, reduced
the size of cultivated land in 1997. Farmers without oxen normally rent from
others who have finished planting their plots. Farmers without oxen usually
miss ideal planting days. Replanting of plots several times following the
arrival of rainfall also depleted the seed reserve of farmers. The 1997-98
FAO/WFP Mission noted that there was a noticeable seed shortage and seed price
hikes in the northern zones in October and November 1997. Farmers were
opportunistically attempting to cultivate fast maturing crops, such as barley, teff
and chickpeas, in order to take advantage of the 1997 unseasonable rains
(FAO/WFP 12/19/1997). Chickpeas are usually planted at the end of the rainy
season and need less precipitation to mature. Chickpea prices were up by 25-300
percent because of the high demand for seeds (ibid.).
Yields and
output in 1997 were disappointing because of drought during the Kemt and
heavy rainfall during the harvest. Crop output was reduced because of
“delayed and reduced cultivation practices, poor rainfall at flowering, seed
and grain fill, and early rain stop” that were reported in all regions of
Ethiopia (FAO/WFP 12/19/1997). The 1997 heavy rainfall during the harvest
season reduced crop yields. There was “physical damage, increased seed drop,
vulnerability to fungal attacks, pre-harvest sprouting, delayed harvesting with
associated increases in pest attacks, discoloration of grains, increased
vulnerability to spoilage in on-field stacks and untimely threshing and storing
of moist grains” (FAO/WFP 12/19/1997). In 1997, it was reported that
yield-reducing factors other than rainfall were very few.
One of the
impacts of rainfall variability is pest infestation. The alternation between
dry and wet conditions is conducive for the reproduction of pests and worms
that attack crops. In 1997, there were reports of localized pest infestation,
such as armyworms, stalk borer and grasshoppers, that attacked sorghum and
maize in the lowland areas of Northern Gondar and Western Harerghe.
The 1997
drought had threatened livestock production in the pastoral areas. It is
believed that about 10,000 domestic animals might have died in two districts of
the Raya in Southern Tigray alone due to drought (UNDP 9/1997). Other
localities affected included the lowland Weredas of southern Gondar and
the vicinity of the Tekeze Valley. In Oromiya there was stress in the lowlands
areas in July and August due to erratic rainfall (UNDP 9/1997). The price of
cattle fell by 60-70 percent. There were premature migrations and an increase
in morbidity and mortality (FAO/WFP 12/1997). Fortunately, abnormal late
rains reversed the situation for the animals.
The 1997
unseasonable bega floods:
Unseasonable heavy rainfall started in most parts of Ethiopia in
October 1997 and continued until the end of November (FAO/WFP 12/19/1997).
These months are normally dry, and Ethiopian farmers harvest their crops during
this time of year. The areas most affected by flood were normally marginal in
terms of rainfall. The floods of 1997 were the worst in 40 years
(Reuters, 12/5/1997).
The abnormally
heavy rainfall of 1997 during the harvest season destroyed property and killed
many people in Ethiopia. The heavy rains of September 1997 in Tigray caused
floods and damaged 1,400 hectares of crops owned by 1,971 peasants (Addis
Tribune, 9/5/1997). In Dollo Odo in eastern Ethiopia, 935 families were
homeless and 5,700 cattle were lost to flood. In Melka Suftu, on the border of
Kenya, floods displaced 2,500 people (Addis Tribune 11/7/1997). Heavy
rainfall raised and flooded the banks of the Wabe Shebele and Genale Rivers in
the Somali Regional State. The flood killed 38 people, over 9,000 head of
livestock, destroyed. In addition, it destroyed 300 houses, displaced 1,300
people homeless and washed out roads (IPS 11/3/1997, UN-DHA, 11/5/1997,
ENA 11/13/1997). Somali refugees in eastern Ethiopia were the groups most
severely affected by the flood. The flood situation was bad in most
countries of the Horn of Africa, including Kenya and Somalia. Table 3 is a
conservative summary of the impact of abnormal weather in 1997.
|
|
Killed |
Injured |
Damaged Property |
Damaged Crop |
|
Flood |
171 people 5620
animals |
16 persons |
512 houses & residential units |
805 hectares |
|
Lightning |
26 persons 9 oxen |
6 persons |
|
|
|
Torrential rain |
18 persons 3258 animals |
21 persons |
151 houses & residential units |
131,915 hectare |
|
Land slide |
22 persons |
24 persons |
|
|
|
Rain failure |
800 animals |
|
|
|
|
Total |
237 persons 16,887 animals |
67 persons |
663 houses & residential units |
132,732 hectare |
Source: NMSA, Early Warning System Report, November 1997 (unpublished)
In October
1997, Ethiopia introduced nation-wide power rationing to offset water shortages
in dams with hydroelectric stations (Reuters, 10/3/1997).
The Ethiopian Electric
and Power Corporation (ELPA) stated that the effect of El Niño on Ethiopian
weather had reduced the volume of water in the reservoirs at the hydroelectric
plants. It announced at the end of August 1997, which is the time the
reservoirs usually reach their full supply volume, that water volume at Koka
was reduced by 40 percent and at Melka-Wakena by 25 percent of their full
capacity. The ELPA announced, in a statement that it had divided the nine
Federal States into 11 zones. Each would be without power between 7.00 a.m. and
8.00 p.m. on a rotating basis every 14 days (IPS 8/26/1997).
The 1997-98 El
Niño affected the production of coffee, Ethiopia’s leading export. During
normal weather conditions, Ethiopia’s annual coffee production ranges between
200,000 to 250,000 tons. In the 1997-98 season, however, Ethiopia produced only
128,000 tons (Reuters 10/1/ 1997). This made 1997 production 20 percent less
than 1996. In September 1997, Mr. Tsegaye Berhanu, manager of Ethiopia’s Coffee
and Tea Authority said that there would be some damage to Ethiopia’s coffee
production, but it was too early to assess the damage (Reuters 9/1/1997).
He also added “the freak rains were somewhat light over the coffee growing
region during October and September.” His earlier optimism was dashed
when, two months later, he lamented that “Coffee berries ready to be
picked from trees have been falling on the ground due to heavy rains
accompanied by gale (force) winds prevailing in the area” (Reuters 12/9/1997).
At the beginning
of 1998, there were hopes that the abnormally excessive precipitation in the bega
season would continue to the belg season. However, the 1998 belg rains
were very poor and below average in amount, throughout the southeastern,
eastern, central and northern parts of Ethiopia in amount, distribution and
duration (DPPC 1998d, 1).
Increase in the Price
of Commodities
At the
beginning of September 1997, the price of all the major crops was substantially
above that of 1996. The price hike ranged from 13 percent for teff to 53
percent for maize (FAO/WFP 12/1997). The anomalous weather in 1997-98 impacted
the prices of commodities. Average prices of cereals between August-October
1997 were markedly higher than during the similar months in 1996. There were
also regional differences in the prices of cereals. Teff prices ranged
from 173 Birr per quintal in Hossana to 273 in Mekelle; the price of wheat
ranged between 149 in Bale Robi to 263 in Mekelle; the price of maize ranged
from 112 Birr in Chagni to 173 Birr in Alaba; and the price of sorghum ranged
from 103 Birr in Chagni to 225 Birr in Mekelle (Grain Marketing Research
Project [GMRP] November 1997).
Table 4. National Average
Cereal Prices August-October 1996 and 1997
(In Birr/Quintal)
|
|
1996 |
1997 |
% Change |
||||
|
Cereals |
Aug |
Sept. |
Oct. |
Aug. |
Sept. |
Oct. |
Oct. 97 / Oct. 96 |
|
Mixed teff |
177.90 |
174.79 |
187.81 |
186.58 |
187.84 |
189.18 |
+13 |
|
White barley |
118.55 |
122.42 |
120.23 |
155.90 |
161.21 |
189.18 |
+57 |
|
White wheat |
143.62 |
147.97 |
152.52 |
181.12 |
183.57 |
183.01 |
+20 |
|
White sorghum |
129.54 |
133.99 |
137.64 |
159.15 |
161.74 |
166.91 |
+21 |
|
White maize |
78.19 |
76.81 |
79.69 |
123.30 |
124.17 |
111.89 |
+40 |
Source: Grain Marketing Research Project (GMRP) New Market Information
System (MIS) database, November 1997(Quoted by FAO/WFP 12/19/1997).
Impact on Food Production
The El Niño of 1997 damaged food production in
Ethiopia by a combination of drought during the Kiremt
and unseasonably excessive rainfall during the harvest season. As previously
stated, total land cultivated, yield amount and total output in 1997 were lower
than in 1996.
The total area of land cultivated in 1997-98 was
estimated to be about 6.8 million hectares. For example, only 29 percent of
farmland in the Oromiya zone of region 3 was planted due to drought (Addis Zemen Nehase 1, 1989 E.C [4] or August 10 1997). An aggregated
investigation of the damage indicates that teff
was the most damaged crop in 1997-98 (CSA 1998, 22). The Central Statistical
Authority (CSA) data indicates that 49 percent of the land for teff was damaged due to too much rain; while
12 percent was damaged due to too little rain. Only 21 percent was reported to
be undamaged (ibid.). The yield for this important crop was also reduced by 46
percent due to a shortened period of rain and by 25 percent due to too much
rainfall (ibid.). Wheat and barley, which are very important crops on the
Ethiopian plateau, were also affected by the unusual weather. Too much rain
affected 29 percent and 36 percent of wheat and barley, respectively. This
lowered yields by 4 percent for wheat and 1 percent for barley. The undamaged
areas for wheat and barley were 44 percent and 39 percent respectively (ibid.
23). The undamaged area had yields higher than 1996/97 by as much as 15 percent
for wheat and 13 percent for barley (ibid. 23-24). Maize and sorghum are
important crops in the lowland areas of Ethiopia. The CSA data indicates that
18 percent of maize areas and 21 percent of sorghum areas were damaged due to
drought, while 22 percent of maize and 12 percent of sorghum were damaged due
to too much rainfall (CSA 1998, 25). Too much rain also damaged 30 percent of
other crops (ibid.).
|
CAUSE OF
DAMAGE |
AREA |
% |
PRODUCTION
‘000 QT |
% |
YIELD |
% CHANGE FROM
NO DAMAGE |
|
NO DAMAGE |
2335.4 |
34.1 |
28954.12 |
39.33 |
12.40 |
- |
|
INSECT AND
PESTS |
237.15 |
3.46 |
2179.21 |
2.19 |
9.19 |
-25.88 |
|
SHRTAGE OF
RAIN |
891.32 |
13.01 |
8087.49 |
10.98 |
9.07 |
-26.81 |
|
TOO MUCH RAIN |
2256.56 |
32.94 |
22744.84 |
30.98 |
10.08 |
-18.70 |
|
OTHER |
1129.07 |
16.48 |
1166.05 |
15.84 |
10.33 |
-16.70 |
|
TOTAL |
6849.50 |
100.0 |
73626.71 |
100.0 |
10.75 |
- |
SOURCE: Central Statistical Authority, 1998, page 22.
The 1997-98 climate anomaly had a significant impact on the
Ethiopian economy, by reducing Ethiopia’s GDP growth from 5 percent in 1996/97
to 3 percent in 1997-98 (Thompson el. al., 98). As Table 6 indicates, the
output and yield of crops were reduced due to drought and excessive rainfall.
Total area for cereals was reduced by 16.25 percent while output was down by
more than 24 percent due to erratic weather. Yields were also down by about 10
percent, as Table 6 indicates. The yields of most pulses and other crops also
declined due to the 1997-98 El Niño
events.
.Table 6. Estimates of 1996/97 and 1997-98 Area,
Production and Yield of Major Crops for Private Peasants’ Holdings in Ethiopia
(Meher Season)
|
CROP |
Total area in (000 HA) |
Total Output (000 QT.) |
Yield (QT/HA) |
||||||
|
|
96/97 |
97/98 |
% Change |
96/97 |
97/98 |
% Change |
96/97 |
97/98 |
% Change |
|
Cereal Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum Millet Oats |
6,688.56 2,167.77 697.67 772.23 1,316.87 1,399.95 290.66 |
5,601.88 1,747.19 681.95 787.72 1,100.61 954.74 289.74 |
-16.25 -19.40 -2.25 2.01 -16.42 -31.80 -0.32 |
8,6293.32 20,019.93 7,423.85 10.015.90 25,320.03 20,073.46 2,961.65 |
6,4987.83 13,073.48 7,863.95 11,067.85 19,288.51 10,697.40 2,587.05 |
-24.69 -34.69 5.93 10.50 -23.82 -46.71 -12.65 |
12.90 9.23 10.64 12.97 19.23 14.34 10.19 |
11.60 7.48 11.53 14.05 17.53 11.20 8.93 |
-10.07 -18.93 8.38 8.33 -8.86 -21.87 -12.38 |
|
Pulses Horse Beans Field Peas Haricotbeans Chick Peas Lentils Vetch |
905.35 329.31 158.11 112.81 147.90 52.81 104.41 |
837.61 266.30 119.88 92.19 169.97 47.09 142.17 |
-7.48 -19.13 -24.18 -18.28 14.92 -10.83 36.17 |
8026.28 3,206.76 1,063.03 947.64 1,264.61 344.87 1,199.36 |
6801.92 2,596.67 927.25 548.46 1,371.33 310.79 1,047.44 |
-15.25 -19.03 -12.77 -42.12 8.44 -9.88 -12.67 |
8.86 9.74 6.72 8.40 8.55 6.43 11.49 |
8.12 9.75 7.73 5.95 8.07 6.60 7.37 |
-8.35 0.11 15.10 -29.18 -5.64 2.64 -35.88 |
|
Others Neug Linseed Rapeseed Groundnuts Sunflower Sesame Fenugreek |
478.45 250.52 148.17 21.40 17.43 5.17 18.50 17.26 |
410.01 195.22 134.64 15.67 11.02 3.33 23.62 29.71 |
-14.30 -22.07 -9.13-26.78 -36.78 -35.59 27.68 72.13 |
2132.79 834.54 676.23 125.28 ** ** 72.76 100.31 |
1836.96 735.79 633.46 86.94 77.76 12.57 98.25 162.19 |
-13.87 -11.83 -6.32 ** -37.93 ** 35.02 61.69 |
4.46 3.33 4.56 ** 7.19 ** 3.93 5.80 |
4.48 3.77 4.79 5.55 7.06 3.77 4.16 5.46 |
0.45 13.18 3.18 ** -1.86 ** 5.84 -5.88 |
|
ALL CROPS |
8072.36 |
6849.50 |
-15.15 |
96452.39 |
73,626.71 |
-23.67 |
11.95 |
10.75 |
-10.05 |
Source: CSA, 1998
Impact of
the 1998 belg season:
At the
beginning of 1998, the prospects for the belg season were expected to be
good. The good precipitation at the end of 1997 left some moisture in the soil
that led to the early commencement of agricultural activities in some belg-producing
areas (DPPC, May/June 1998). There was some rainfall at the beginning of the
belg season. However, the rains abruptly stopped in March and the first
half of April 1997 (ibid.) A 1998 report by the NMSA stated that the belg rains
of 1998 were deficient in the eastern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. This
led to the shortage of fodder and water for the pastoralists who predominantly
live in these areas. The rainfall resumed in April and May 1998, but good
rainfall that came after April “did not lead to significant improvements in
crop conditions in most areas” (DPPC May/June 1998). The dry spells in March
and the first week of April 1998 had destroyed the belg crops. The good
rains across all the belg growing areas from the second half of April
until May were good for the maturation of those grains already “approaching
flowering or grain filling stages” (ibid.). The irregularity of the belg rainfall
in 1998 “substantially reduced the area planted to the relatively high-yielding
but long-cycle crops,” such as maize and sorghum for the for the 1998 Kiremt
season (DPPC 1998d, 1).
Table 7 below
is a comparison between 1996-97 and 1997-98 grain production in various regions
of Ethiopia. The FAO Mission put the total grain deficit for Ethiopia in 1998 at
530,000 tons with an affected population of over 5 million (Ibid.)
|
|
1997-98 |
1996/97 |
|
Tigray |
522,881 |
751,036 |
|
Amhara |
2,828,827 |
3,635,923 |
|
Oromiya |
4,113,637 |
5,835,035 |
|
SNNPS |
1,179,860 |
1,440,661 |
|
Benishangul |
113,830 |
96,899 |
|
Gambella |
9,008 |
11,130 |
|
Somali |
17,822 |
27,300 |
|
Harar |
12,573 |
16,627 |
|
Diredawa |
800 |
6,153 |
|
Addis Ababa |
6.055 |
10,245 |
|
Total |
8,806,283 |
11,831,009 |
Source: Addis Tribune
At the end of
August 1997, Ethiopia estimated that 154,107 Metric Tons (MT) of food was
needed to feed an estimated 3.4-5 million people (Addis Tribune, 8/10/97
and 8/28/97 ). The main cause of this food deficit was rainfall
variability. The reason given for the intensity of the food shortage was a
combined failure of the belg and the Kiremt rainfall. A joint
USAID and EC report also estimated that in the marginal areas of Ethiopia, [7] which are usually drought prone, not more
than 50 percent of the normal output would be produced in the 1997-98 harvest
(Addis Tribune, 10/10/1997).
What
is the reliability of those attributions?
Evaluations of the impact of the El Niño at the end of the 1997-98
season confirmed that the climate anomaly that caused the disasters was real.
The NMSA compared the rainfall of the 1997 Kiremt with 1972, which was
the analogue year selected during the forecast. It confirmed that the amount of
rainfall was similar with some exceptions, as some areas received less rainfall
than the 1972 Kiremt. The attributes that can be taken for reduced
output are the supply of inputs. The zone governments were providing farmers
with seed credits to take advantage of any precipitation. Inputs, such as oxen
and seeds, were in short supply because of the abnormal weather that
necessitated numerous replanting of the fields because of 1997’s erratic
rainfall. There was an absence of subsidized fertilizers, but farmers stated
that fertilizers are not useful with unpredictable rainfall.