Ethiopia is a developing country located in the mountainous region of the Horn of Africa

The 1997-98 Event :

Trace the flow of information on the 1997-98 El Niño

a. When did the various Ethiopian agencies first hear about this developing El Niño?

The NMSA first heard about the 1997 El Niño in March 1997. Other agencies heard about it during the presentation of the weather assessment and outlook by the NMSA during the process of preparation for the seasonal forecast on May 29 1997. The forecast was issued on May 29, 1997.

b. Where did the information come from?

There are many sources of El Niño information for Ethiopia. Ethiopia receives meteorological information for its weather forecast from the following sources: (1) European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF); (2) National Climate Prediction Center, (NOAA; (3) African Center of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD); (4) Drought Monitoring Center (DMC), and the Australian Weather Bureau (Kassahun 1999).

The El Niño information for the 1997-98 period was received from the National Climate Prediction Center of NOAA, which produces the Climate Diagnostic Bulletin and from the Weekly Climate Bulletin of the Australian Weather Bureau (Kassahun 2000). The information was received through the postal service because it did not have an e-mail connection at that time.

The following publications are regularly received by the NMSA:

1. The seasonal and monthly Climate Monitoring Bulletin for the Southern Hemisphere; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia;

2. The Monthly Bulletin of Drought Monitoring Center; Nairobi, Kenya;

3. The Seasonal and Monthly Bulletin of the South African Weather Bureau;

4. Rain watch and prediction for Africa, from the African Center of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD);

5. The Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research in the UK.

c. When did they first hear it would be a strong event? From whom?

They heard that it would be a strong El Niño in May 1997, when the Pacific SST temperature reached +4 degrees. The information came from the National Climate Prediction Center, USA and the Australian Weather Bureau.

d. Which agencies first received the information?

As a leading agency for monitoring Ethiopia’s weather, the NMSA was the first to have access to the El Niño information of 1997-98.

e. Were these the appropriate agencies to first receive the information?

The NMSA was the appropriate Agency to receive the information first. The NMSA provides meteorological forecasts by gathering information both locally and from outside sources. It has established about 600 meteorological stations in various parts of the country. Through the WMO, which coordinates the exchange of information between its members, the NMSA receives information needed for weather forecast from diverse sources mentioned earlier.

NMSA scientists also gathered more information from the websites of the NCPC, the WMO and other agencies dealing with climate.

f. How was the information obtained?

The information was retrieved from the bulletin sent by the Climate Prediction Center and the Australian Weather Bureau. The El Niño information contained in the hard copy of the bulletin sent by the Climate Prediction Center was transmitted by regular mail because the NMSA did not have an e-mail connection at that time.

Through the DPPC, the early warning was distributed to the various ministries and to the regions. The various ministries, such as Agriculture, Water Resources and the DPPC, were to redesign their plans to respond to the expected seasonal variability. The regions got the information mainly through the early warning department of the DPPC and also through the regional government. The regional governments were expected to strengthen their early warning units at the regional, zonal and Wereda levels so that they could reach the farmers and herders in a timely

manner.

g. How was the information transmitted?

The information was transmitted through the postal service. NMSA did not have an e-mail connection in 1997.

h. How did the media first report the developing El Niño?

NMSA provides weather forecasts to the media, but does not encourage them to distribute the forecast to the public for fear that it may create panic. It prefers the relevant Ministries, such as the Ministry of Agriculture and the DPPC, to advise the end users, such as farmers about the forecast and response. The 1997-98 El Niño event was first mentioned in the Ethiopian media on the March 6, 1997 issue of the private weekly newspaper, Addis Tribune. It briefly predicted that the 1997 Kiremt might be a drought season because of the so-called El Niño that was emerging in the world scene. With this exception, the Ethiopian media did not cover the initial El Niño reports of the development of El Niño (with the exception of NMSA or DPPC early warnings) and its possible impact on Ethiopia. Extensive coverage by the media came in the latter part of August when the impact of the El Niño was being felt by the Ethiopian government.

i. How did the media cover the event over time? (Quote headlines names of radio stations, programs, etc., with dates.)

Even though the Ethiopian media did not cover the evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño, it covered its impact in the second half of 1997. The NMSA forecasters were discussing the evolution of the El Niño and releasing its possible impact to members of the early warning committee before the May 29, 1997 forecast. The government-owned daily, The Ethiopian Herald, and Addis Zemen printed the May 1997 El Niño forecast, but they did not dwell much about its causes or implications. During June, July and the first three weeks of August 1997, the Ethiopian media did not cover the evolving El Niño and its implications for Ethiopia.

Over time, the media began to cover the impact of El Niño on Ethiopia. The brief burst in media coverage of the 1997-98 El Niño event and its impact on Ethiopia began at the end of August 1997, three months after the initial Ethiopia forecast on May 29, 1997.

The Ethiopian media boosted its coverage of the 1997-98 El Niño in response to the Prime Minister’s Office’s reaction to the impact of El Niño during the August 1997 joint quarterly meeting of the Federal and Regional government officials. There was a subsequent announcement, in which the Prime Minister’s Office stated that appropriate measures would be taken to counter the impacts of El Niño. On its dispatch titled “Climate Change affects rainfall activity in Ethiopia,” The Ethiopian News Agency (ENA) wrote that rainfall in Ethiopia was decreasing because of El Niño (ENA 8/29/1997). The Amharic daily, Addis Zemen (Nehasse 29 1989 EC or September 10, 1997) wrote an article titled, “Scientists declare that El Niño would bring drought: there is a need for a coordinated response.” In this news item, Addis Zemen also included the announcement of the Prime Minister’s Office about the advent of El Niño and its possible impacts on Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Herald (8/30 1997) wrote an article under the title, “Rainfall failure attached to El Niño phenomenon.” It quoted the NMSA, which declared “the El Niño phenomenon in Ethiopia has resulted in the scarcity of rainfall in various parts of the country during the big rainy season, particularly in July.” Two days later, the paper again wrote an article titled, “El Niño affects rainfall activity” (Ethiopian Herald 9/2/1997). This late extensive media coverage was influenced by the statement released from the Prime Minister’s Office on the impact of El Niño on Ethiopia. The media did not disseminate the May NMSA drought forecast to the public through editorials or discussions. It only reported the forecast. In the latter part of the season the media was only following the government in its dissemination of the El Niño impact.

Another aspect of the media coverage was the impact of weather variability on Ethiopia. One of the characteristics of the 1997 El Niño was abnormal rainfall during the dry months between October and December 1997. The media covered the impact of the 1997 bega rains and floods on people, animals and property that it attributed to the El Niño phenomenon. The Addis Tribune, for example, wrote, “57 Die in Worst Flooding in Decades” (Addis Tribune 10/7/1997). There was some interest on the impact of El Niño on coffee, the leading export crop of Ethiopia. One article read: “World Coffee crop seen at the mercy of El Niño” (Ethiopian Herald 9/21/1997). Another headline was, “El Niño Cut Ethiopian Coffee Production” (Addis Tribune 12/12/1997).

During this period, people were uncharacteristically talking about weather in Ethiopia. This was shown when the Addis Tribune featured two young weathermen from the NMSA on one of its issues. The feature was titled, “Talking of People…Weathering clouds that Fog the Bright Future” (Addis Tribune 9/5/1997). Though the interview was not particularly about El Niño, it was motivated by the impact of El Niño on Ethiopia by creating anomalous weather.

Sometimes the media did not put the statement of the NMSA with in the context of the seasonal forecast. The media presented it as if contradictory messages were coming out of NMSA. For example, Addis Zemen reported that the heavy rainfall in July in Addis Ababa was untimely and was caused by climate change (Hamle 11, 1989 E. C. July 21, 1997). However, July is normally a month of heavy rainfall. On July 27, 1997 (Hamle 17, 1989 E.C.), the same paper wrote optimistically about the Kiremt rainfall stating that it “will increase in quality and quantity” (Addis Zemen, Hamle 17, 1989, i.e. July 27, 1997). The newspaper also quoted NMSA as stating that the rainfall would continue for the next 8 days and that farmers who earlier missed planting because of the drought at the beginning of the season should take advantage of the new situation. Until the end of August, the media did not relate the rainfall variability to the El Niño phenomenon of 1997.

There was good media coverage of a conference titled “Flood Vulnerability in Ethiopia.” It was organized in June 1997 to learn from the disastrous floods in 1996 that affected many low-lying areas of Ethiopia, including commercial plantations. Referring to this conference, Addis Zemen wrote an editorial titled “Will this year’s Kiremt be like last year?” (yezendrom Kiremt inde amna …Sene 21, 1989 E.C. or July 11 1997). It echoed the fear of the DPPC, which forecast that 450,000 people might be vulnerable to flood in the 1997 Kiremt. It stated that the DPPC was prepared to handle the situation in terms of material acquisition, such as, food, clothing and shelter in order to support any population that might be affected. The daily also stressed the importance of forecasting instead of being reactive to the disaster. It stated that the Ministry of Water Resources had already built dikes and other anti-flood measures on the Awash River so that it did not repeat the 1996 disaster. Again, the paper failed to adequately compare the causes of the 1996 and 1997 floods.

The media continued to cover Ethiopian weather and stated that August would have an improved rainfall distribution (Addis Zemen, Hamle 23 1989 E.C., i.e. August 2 1997). The paper quoted an expert from the NMSA, Mr. Berhanu Getachew, who stated that the erratic rainfall of June and July would change for the better in August. He also predicted floods in many parts of the country. He explained that the reason for the change in weather was due to the decrease in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean. The decrease in the SST on the Pacific would lead to the increase in the rainfall coming from the Atlantic Ocean. He also stated that Pacific Ocean SSTs affect rainfall distribution in Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian Herald also continued its interest in El Niño. It stated, “ Effects of El Niño have already been felt in some parts of eastern Africa, including Eritrea, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda and Sudan” (Ethiopian Herald 12/2/1997). It also referred to the fear of experts that drought and flood could lead to epidemics among people and cattle. It quoted Mr. Prosper Mutiwanyuka, who is the COMESA Secretariat in Lusaka, who advised farmers to slaughter their animals and retain the younger and healthier ones to avoid unnecessary losses.

j. Was the 1997-98 El Niño compared with any previous events?

It was compared with the 1972 El Niño. The 1997-98 El Niño was stronger than any previous El Niño. According to the NMSA, the 1997-98 El Niño, despite its strength, resembled that of the 1972 El Niño (NMSA 199a, 1997b, 1). The pattern of rainfall distribution during the Kiremt and other climatic factors made it analogous to that of the 1972-73 El Niño. The NMSA chose the 1972 El Niño as an analogue year for the 1997-98 El Niño. The NMSA expected rainfall distribution in 1997-98 to be similar to 1972 in terms of temporal and spatial distribution. There was also a better and more effective domestic and international response to the 1997-98 impact than to that of the 1972-73 El Niño. More than 200,000 people died in 1973-74 due to drought in Ethiopia. The impact of the 1972-73 El Niño, when thousands of people perished, was different because of differences in early warning and preparedness.

Before the mention of the 1997-98 El Niño, when was the previous mention of El Niño in the media?

The first mention of El Niño before 1997 was on August 25, 1987, when experts from the NMSA and the Minister of Agriculture gave a televised press conference and explained the 1987 drought and its relation to El Niño. It should be noted that Ethiopia, for the first time, used El Niño as an early warning in 1987 (Kassahun 2000).